Vignette Realty Market Report
Authored by Rashaune De La Cruz and Kristie Brennan
Our summarized market analysis shows robust long-term demand, value sustainability and strengthening for the foreseeable future, and low risk. Following is a detailed analysis of the data used to forecast
Our focus is on housing demand, sustainability, and value. These three keys are our clients' biggest concerns, and rightfully so. Demand drives value, and sustainability determines risk. If demand is high in the short term for properties in Northwest North Carolina, it will drive value. Property value improvements will continue as long as future projections on market growth are sustainable. Based on the numbers, the future looks promising and potentially highly profitable for real estate investment in the mountains.
More housing for residential buyers is needed in this country. The United States currently has a housing shortage of approximately 3.8 million homes. Western North Carolina has an even higher shortfall of homes as a percentage.
Western North Carolina is experiencing a high demand for housing, with a shortage of available properties compared to the existing residential homes. This shortage is higher than the national average. When we consider the shortage in rentals, Macon and Jackson County show similar demand patterns, indicating a robust opportunity for investors. This shortage drives up property values and creates a favorable environment for rental properties, making it an ideal time for investment.
The question of a one-year data study is the trend line. Is it sustainable? The data for Western North Carolina show that the shortage of residential housing has increased every year for the last five years.
Driving the housing shortage in Macon County is the projected population increase of 115% over the next ten years. This significant growth is due to several factors, including the following.
Many people can work remotely. Many companies are clamoring for employees to return to work in the office, and many have adopted a philosophy of monitoring behavior rather than requiring attendance. Those who have always looked for a life in a small mountain community can make it a reality. And where else would someone want to raise a family?
On the other hand, the target clients for properties in Western North Carolina are people looking for an incredible place to live and retire in the mountains. The United States has a population of approximately 332 million people. The population of people looking to retire over the next 20 years is 81.7 million, representing 25%. This group represents individuals between the ages of 50 and 69.
The baby boomers are considered the wealthiest generation in the history of the world. They are flooding areas such as the sunbelt states, the midwestern mountain regions, and, in particular, Western North Carolina. Those who move farther south than North Carolina usually have a sense of loss for the Northeast and Midwest, causing them to move 'Half Back' to Western North Carolina, a term used to describe their desire to return to a familiar and comfortable environment halfway in between. This trend, combined with the region's appealing climate and natural beauty, is driving the demand for real estate in Western North Carolina.
All of us remember macro and micro economics. One of the first principles taught is the law of supply and demand, which dictates value. The short story on real estate in Western North Carolina is simple. Prices will continue to rise. Based upon the number of building permits submitted and accepted by Macon County over the last five years, 627 permits, according to FRED Economic data (Federal Bank), it will be impossible to meet current demand, let alone adding a 110 -115% increase in population to the current housing shortage in the mountains.
We are committed to providing more valuable information to our clients in future market reports, ensuring that you are always well-informed and equipped to make the best real estate investment decisions.
Our data sources provide a comprehensive and reliable market overview, including the American Community Survey (ACS), the State of the Nation's Housing, the North Carolina Housing Finance Agency (NCHFA), and the Western North Carolina Market Research Center. This data, which is up to date as of 2024 year to date, is the result of rigorous research and analysis, ensuring its reliability.
